An example of using Bayes’ rule

I don’t often post here (perhaps I should) but this nugget I stumbled across in my Twitter feed this morning was irresistible given what we covered in class yesterday:
http://continuations.com/post/47016060604/new-york-city-crosswalks-safety-and-bayes

Advertisements

One thought on “An example of using Bayes’ rule”

  1. I find this logic that you are probably better off NOT crossing at an actual crosswalk fairly easy to understand based on my own personal experiences.
    The article basically says that only 20% of injuries happen to people who don’t use the crosswalk properly, which means that 80% of pedestrians actually doing the right thing get hurt.
    To me this makes sense because as a pedestrian, if you are fully aware that you are not following the rules and thus putting yourself in danger, you will do all in your power to avoid the consequences of disobeying those rule. You will be more aware of your surroundings and much more careful because you are expecting speeding cars etc. therefore avoid getting hit the best you can. Whereas, if you are a pedestrian on the crosswalk, one who has waited for your right-of-way, you assume that the cars will also be obeying the rules of the road and allow you to cross by slowing down and stopping in ample time. You are less likely to pay as much attention to your surroundings because you are assuming that everyone else on the road is obeying road safety rules as well, so when a random car comes speeding along and hit you, you are caught offgaurd; its much more unexpected.
    Unfortunately, as this article states, this may not be the case.

Comments are closed.